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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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