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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 22 January 19
AUSTRALIA'S YANCOAL PRODUCED 50 MMT SALEABLE COAL IN 2018 UP 59 PER CENT ON THE YEAR PRIOR, THE QUARTERLY REPORT SHOWS
According to the report, the miner's quarterly (Q4' 18) saleable coal production of 12.4 Mmt. Includes 10.5 Mmt (85 per cent) from the Comp ...
Monday, 21 January 19
KOSPO INVITING BIDS FOR 320K MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 3,800 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Monday, 21 January 19
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIAN COAL RUNS, TONNAGE WAS GIVING APS DELIVERIES AND A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXED AT $7,000 FOR A TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A positive end to a week that saw rates on the West Australia/China run slip below $6.00, as charterers faced a plentiful supply ...
Monday, 21 January 19
HARD COAL WORLD TRADE IN 2018 RISES BY 3.7 PER CENT; GLOBAL HARD COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 1.7 PER CENT - VDKI
Global Hard Coal Production Increases By 1.7%.
According to provisional calculations by the German Coal Importer Association (VDKi), ...
Sunday, 20 January 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT - IEA
Last month, we asked if there was a floor under prices following the signing of a new Vienna Agreement that aims to re-balance the oil market. Foll ...
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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