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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 29 January 19
CHINA HAS BEEN THE TOP DRIVER OF GLOBAL GROWTH FOR NEARLY TWO DECADES - ALLIED
China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for deman ...
Saturday, 26 January 19
SUPRAMAX: NICKEL ORE RUNS SAW A 56K DWT VESSEL, DELIVERY PHILIPPINES, FIXED FOR A TRIP TO CHINA AT $6K - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A week of dashed hopes for owners as the optimism evident the previous week evaporated. Rates slipped on all routes and underlying thr ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX OWNERS; MARKET CONTINUES DOWN IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
The week has been marked by low activity and dropping rates in both basins. As usual, supply additions have increased at the beginning ...
Thursday, 24 January 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 960K MT OF 4600 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 320,000 MT of min 4,600 kcal/kg NCV low calo ...
Tuesday, 22 January 19
9TH GLOBAL MANUFACTURING SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019
Rethinking the supply chain in manufacturing is a must at the digital era along with the industry transforming and innovating; new manufacturing is ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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