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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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