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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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