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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
If there is one word that can describe the current shipping environment then that this word is most probably “volatility.” The sentimen ...
Saturday, 09 February 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000-TONNER WAS REPORTED FIXED DELIVERY FOR AN EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $9,250 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Cape
The Vale disaster weighed heavily on the market for big ships, with uncertainty about shipments/future exports leading to a sharp drop in ...
Friday, 08 February 19
LOWER-QUALITY INDONESIA EXPORTS ROSE 39 MT IN 2018 YOY PRIMARILY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA - PEABODY
"Underlying seaborne met and thermal coal conditions remain quite positive and the pace of U.S. coal-fueled power plant retirements is expecte ...
Thursday, 07 February 19
QATAR CAN GAIN FROM DECLINING COAL - THE PENINSULA
With North America and Europe closing down their old coal and nuclear plants, major gas exporters like Qatar can and should gain market share. With ...
Wednesday, 06 February 19
FEBRUARY 2019 INDONESIA'S COAL REFERENCE PRICE FELL 8.83 PERCENT YOY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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