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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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