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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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