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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 19 February 19
FAST DEPLETING COAL RESERVES COULD PUSH UP ENERGY PRICES, CAUTIONS EXPERT - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The fast depletion of coal, a strategic resource and India’s fuel of choice currently, has huge implications for energy costs, according to K ...
Monday, 18 February 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORT FALLS TO 17.25 MT IN JANUARY - PTI
Coal imports saw a decline in January FY 2019 to 17.25 MT from 19.59 MT in the same month of the previous fiscal, according to a report by mjunctio ...
Monday, 18 February 19
THE ROLE OF COAL IN INDIA'S ENERGY AMBITIONS - WCA
India is the world’s second most populous country and figures among the world’s most rapidly growing economies.
The Sout ...
Saturday, 16 February 19
COALTRANS CHINA 2019, CHINA'S LARGEST COAL INDUSTRY GATHERING
Press Release: Coaltrans China 2019 | With the import ban likely to be lifted, it’s time for you to meet your potentia ...
Wednesday, 13 February 19
MALAYSIA WAS THE REGION'S LARGEST COAL IMPORTER WITH 34 MT IN 2018, UP 25% Y-O-Y
Although coal market in 2018 started with strong prices, starting in the beginning of the second half of 2018, the international spot prices for co ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
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