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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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