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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 06 March 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
In a downward moving market, softer SnP activity is usually a given, as the gap between Sellers’ and Buyers’ ideas widens, especially w ...
Saturday, 02 March 19
A 60,500-TONNER WAS BOOKED DELIVERY SINGAPORE, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $11,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Vale’s ongoing absence from the Brazil spot market continued to have a negative impact on sentiment, with rates falling in all a ...
Thursday, 28 February 19
COAL'S PERFECT STORM HITS $70 BILLION AUSTRALIAN PROJECTS - BLOOMBERG
It’s been a tough few weeks for our coal industry.
First there was a court ruling blocking a new mine on climate change ground ...
Wednesday, 27 February 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With the IMO 2020 approaching, it becomes challenging for the market to accurately explore the run-up to the deadline given that marine fuel-oil of ...
Tuesday, 26 February 19
CHINA RESTRICTS SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS - WOOD MACKENZIE
In response to news on China's Dalian port restricting seaborne coal imports, Wood Mackenzie's experts provide the following commentary.
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
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