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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
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Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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