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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
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Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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Showing 1446 to 1450 news of total 6871 |
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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