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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 20 March 19
COAL EXPORT FEARS RESURFACE AS RESTRICTIONS HIT MORE CHINESE PORTS AND AUSTRALIAN PRICES COP A 'BELTING' - ABC
Australian thermal coal exports to China are under increasing pressure, with indications import restrictions are spreading to other key ports.
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Monday, 18 March 19
A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXED DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY CHINA, AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Baltic Capesize market shrugged off its recent negative sentiment to post daily incremental improvements over the last week. Pacif ...
Saturday, 16 March 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL STILL FACING CHINESE DELAY - AAP
Australian coal exports to China are still facing delays, with protectionism and environmental checks blamed for the slowdown.
Coal ...
Thursday, 14 March 19
SUPRAMAX: INDO COAL CARGOES GETTING FIXED AT AROUND US$ 12000 TO CHINA - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Average daily earning still well below operating costs, and owners keep bleeding - but nevertheless finally some bright spots for the ...
Monday, 11 March 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 DWT VESSEL WAS BOOKED SINGAPORE FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA TO CHINA AT $10,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A faint glimmer of hope with the suggestion the market may have finally bottomed out, with owners attempting to resist further cuts in ...
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Showing 1446 to 1450 news of total 6871 |
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Planning Commission, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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