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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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