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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 06 April 19
SUPRAMAX: IT WAS A POOR WEEK OVERALL FOR THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX, WHICH LOST GROUND - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market over the past week looked to have found a floor on Tuesday with the BCI 5TC at $3460 before firming into the rest ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
OVERSUPPLY STILL MAJOR CHALLENGE WARNS ICS
Speaking in Istanbul, Simon Bennett, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS) warned that avoiding overcapacity and ...
Thursday, 04 April 19
GLENCORE, TOHOKU ELECTRIC SET COAL CONTRACT PRICE AT $94.75/T - SOURCE, REUTERS REPORTED
Global miner Glencore and Japan’s Tohoku Electric Power agreed on a price of $94.75 per tonne for supplies of thermal coal from Australia for ...
Monday, 01 April 19
FORCE MAJEURE SUCCESS NOT A SEA CHANGE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
It is difficult to successfully argue that contractual performance has been prevented or delayed by force majeure. This i ...
Monday, 01 April 19
AUSTRALIAN COAL AT RISK FROM CHINA MOVE, WARNS GOVERNMENT REPORT - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
A new government report warns China’s restrictions on coal imports is the number one risk for Australian coal this year and could lead to a s ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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