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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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Showing 1426 to 1430 news of total 6871 |
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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