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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 10 April 19
CHINA'S GROWING THERMAL COAL SUPPLY TO PRESSURE EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Growing Chinese thermal coal supply is likely to lead to further tightening of import controls by the government, putting pressure on seaborne coal ...
Wednesday, 10 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tragedy in Brazil’s Vale Brumadinho where a tailings dam collapsed in January ranks among the world’s worst mining disasters. It co ...
Monday, 08 April 19
5TH INDIA NUCLEAR NEW BUILD CONGRESS 2019
5th India Nuclear New Build Congress 2019
The congress in Mumbai aims to bring together representatives from governments, regulators ...
Monday, 08 April 19
THERMAL COAL PRICES FALL, INDIAN POWER PLANTS TO SEE LIMITED GAINS - BUSINESS STANDARD
Thermal coal prices are on a downward spiral globally. Australian coal prices have fallen nearly 20 per cent in the past week, and 40 per cent from ...
Monday, 08 April 19
CHEAP COAL SWELLS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA, FOILING GLOBAL GREEN PUSH - NIKKEI
Southeast Asian countries are turning to low-cost coal to satisfy their surging electricity demand as the West shies away from the fossil fuel unde ...
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Showing 1426 to 1430 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
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