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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 17 April 19
ONCE AGAIN WE FACED WITH THE SITUATION OF THE DRY BALTIC INDEX BEING BELOW 1,000 POINTS - INTERMODAL
Once again we are faced with the situation of the Dry Baltic Index being below 1,000 points. In a market where the feeling of insecurity is almost ...
Wednesday, 17 April 19
LNG WESTERN AFRICA CONFERENCE 2019
The only LNG Focus Platform to Accelerate Investment and Cooperation in Western African Countries
LNG Western Africa Conference 2019 ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
IMO 2020 - DON'T SCRUB IT! - IVAR MYKLEBUST
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Höegh Autoliners stands firm on its decision not to implement scrubbers but comply with the IMO 2020 regulations by ...
Saturday, 13 April 19
CAPESIZE: WEST AUSTRALIA TO CHINA IRON ORE CARGOES LIFTING FROM $4.60 PMT TO ABOVE $5.00 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market saw a steep ascent from the depths of last week. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC opened on Monday at $5,099, although b ...
Friday, 12 April 19
OFFSHORE MENA CONGRESS 2019
Offshore MENA Congress 2019
Event Date : 11-12th Jun. 2019
Location : Cairo, Egypt
Offshore MENA Congress 2019 Offshor ...
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Showing 1416 to 1420 news of total 6871 |
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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