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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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