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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 28 April 19
SUPRAMAX: A 54,000DWT VESSEL OPEN GRESIK FIXED VIA AUSTRALIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, IN THE MID $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Following the holidays, activity increased in both the Pacific and Atlantic Basins. The 5TC average rallied, closing at $8,596, up $1, ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
PANAMAX: IN THE EAST, THE MARKET MOVED SIDE-WAYS, WITH FEWER COAL CARGOES FROM INDONESIA PUTTING PRESSURE ON RATES - INTERMODAL
Sentiment in the Dry Bulk market slowly but steadily kept improving last week as Capesize rates remained in recovery mode and Panamax earnings also ...
Wednesday, 24 April 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - IS THIS A BANKERS' MARKET? - INTERMODAL
Over the last 10 years, many of the traditional and top lending banks have made the decision to either downsize their portfolios or even exit shipp ...
Monday, 22 April 19
COAL INDIA TO ASK POWER PLANTS TO CUT COAL IMPORTS - DNA
Co to encourage import substitution with domestic supplies at power plants
Surge in coal imports has now forced Coal India Ltd (CIL) ...
Thursday, 18 April 19
BIMCO SEES HARD TIMES AHEAD FOR CAPESIZES
China’s increased use of scrap metal for its production of crude steel is fundamentally critical to the dry bulk shipping industry. Mostly Ca ...
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Showing 1411 to 1415 news of total 6871 |
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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