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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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