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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 09 May 19
OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN CONGRESS 2019
Offshore Caribbean Congress 2019
Event Date: 4-5th July. 2019t
Location: Georgetown, Guyana
Hess announced a new d ...
Tuesday, 07 May 19
UNDOUBTEDLY A VERY TROUBLED YEAR FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET, SAYS ALLIED SHIPPING
Undoubtedly a very troubled year for the dry bulk market says Allied Shipping in its latest weekly report.
Thomas Chasapis, Re ...
Saturday, 04 May 19
HOW THE 'FAIR VALUE' OF COAL ASSETS IS AFFECTED BY COMMODITY CYCLES - CRU
As with any commodity, valuing coal assets can be tricky due to the cyclical nature of the market. In this insight, CRU discusses how commodity cyc ...
Friday, 03 May 19
SUPRAMAX: WITH WIDESPREAD HOLIDAYS DURING THE WEEK, THE MARKET LACKED IMPETUS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market last week was a tale of two halves, with substantial volatility. Beginning the week on a positive note the C5 West Australi ...
Friday, 03 May 19
COAL INDIA APRIL OUTPUT RISES 1% TO 45.29 MILLION TONNE - PTI
Coal India Ltd (CIL) Wednesday said its coal production in April 2019 rose by 1 per cent to 45.29 million tonne as compared with 44.86 million tonn ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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