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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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