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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 29 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Reflecting on the first quarter of 2019, the product tanker market was healthy, with average earnings significantly up compared to the first quarte ...
Sunday, 26 May 19
SUPRAMAX: A LIMITED ACTIVITY WAS REPORTED, WITH THE UPCOMING INDONESIAN HOLIDAYS SLOWING COAL MOVEMENTS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The past week marked one of the busier periods for Capesizes this year. With a subdued start due to a public holiday in Singapore on M ...
Wednesday, 22 May 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The ship repair sector is showing a constant and gradual increase on the workload throughout the past months, with almost all the shipyards worldwi ...
Saturday, 18 May 19
SUPRAMAX: 56,000DWT OPEN PANJANG FIXING AT $10,500 FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, AND REDELIVERY CHINA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The market continues to ebb and flow with a generally positive up trend. The Capesize 5TC opened with upward momentum from last week&r ...
Friday, 17 May 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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