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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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