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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 09 June 19
SUPRAMAX: ASIA LOST GROUND; THE INDIAN OCEAN SAW SLOWER ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued in an unusually steady ascent last week. With no major news in the market, each day improved on the last, breakin ...
Friday, 07 June 19
KOEN INVITED BIDS FOR 1.87 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JULY - OCTOBER 2019 DELIVERY
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,700,000 to 1,870,000 Metric Tons ...
Wednesday, 05 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first semester of 2019 started as a fairly positive semester for the offshore sector whilst there was a recovery on crude prices, as well as a ...
Tuesday, 04 June 19
MARPOL ANNEX VI - SULPHUR CAP 2020 - DEMYSTIFYING THE FONAR - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Fuel Oil Non-Availability Report (FONAR) is primarily a discretionary tool for a Member State to lessen the breach of MAR ...
Monday, 03 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 61,000 TONNER OPEN NORTH CHINA, FIXING A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY SOUTHEAST ASIA AT $7,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market continued its steady ascent over the past week to improved levels. The TC average opened the previous week at $12,243 and c ...
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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