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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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