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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 18 June 19
TANKER SHIPPING: WHILE WE WAIT FOR 2020 TO KICK IN, IT'S ALL ABOUT POLITICS - BIMCO
Demand drivers and freight rates
Iran, Libya and Venezuela face export limitations because of sanctions and internal political troubles. At the s ...
Saturday, 15 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-TONNER, OPEN QINGDAO, WAS BOOKED TO REDELIVER IN EAST COAST INDIA AT $6,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market closed on a quiet Friday last week after a few hectic days of mid-week trading. Trade routes from Brazil to the Far East we ...
Friday, 14 June 19
PANAMAX: OUTLOOK IS MIXED - FERNLEYS
Capesize
Sentiment changed to a more nervous tone as pacific cargo volumes failed to deliver as expected, however latest activity indicates res ...
Friday, 14 June 19
ELECTRONIC (PAPERLESS) TRADING - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Electronic Shipping Solutions: Bolero International Ltd, E-Title Authority Pte Ltd, Global Share S.A. (edoxOnline platfor ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 140,000 MT OF 4,600 NCV COAL FOR SEP. 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 140,000 MT of minimum 4,600 kcal/kg NCV coal ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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