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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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