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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 12 June 19
IMO 2020 - COUNTDOWN TO 1 JANUARY 2020 -HOW WILL THE CHANGES AFFECT REFINING AND SHIPPING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
We know that the IMO’s regulations represent the biggest step change the shipping industry has ever seen and the implications will be felt th ...
Wednesday, 12 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
This year’s tanker S&P activity keeps edging higher compared to the same period in 2018. Year to date we have seen some 143 ships, rangin ...
Tuesday, 11 June 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SET AT $81.48 PER TON IN JUNE, DOWN 15.66 PERCENT YEAR-ON-YEAR
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 10 June 19
CONSECUTIVE OWNERS OF CARGO: WHO HOLDS TITLE AND THE RIGHT TO SUE? - COLIN BIGGERS & PAISLEY
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In Tritton Resources Pty Ltd v Ever Rock Navigation S.A. [2019] FCA 276, the Federal Court considered the application of ...
Monday, 10 June 19
KOSPO INVITES BIDS FOR 1,305,000 MT OF MIN 5600 KCAL/KG NCV COAL FOR SEPT 2019 TO DEC 2021
COALspot.com: South Korea state-owned utility Korea Southern Power Co. Ltd (KOSPO) issued a tender for 435,000 MT (per year) of max 5,600 kcal/kg N ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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