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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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