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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 24 June 19
KOMIPO INVITED BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG & SHIN BORYEONG POWER PLANTS
South Korea state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued a tender for 260,000 MT MT of min. 5700 NAR coal and 240,000 MT of min. 4,600 k ...
Sunday, 23 June 19
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO VIETNAM AT $10,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The story over the past week has been largely Atlantic dominated as the basin’s uniquely volatile characteristics came into play ...
Saturday, 22 June 19
OPEC'S BATTLE FOR CONTROL OF THE OIL MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Oil supply is confounding expectations. We have just raised our forecasts for non-OPEC production, the latest in a series of incremental increases. ...
Friday, 21 June 19
INDONESIA'S BAYAN RESOURCES SIGNED A COAL SUPPLY AGREEMENT WITH THE BANGLADESH BCPCL TO SUPPLY 23 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR 10 YEARS
On Monday, 17th June 2019, PT. Bayan Resources signed a Coal supply Agreement with the Bangladesh- China Power Company (Pvt.) Limited. BCPCL is a j ...
Thursday, 20 June 19
BUMI RESOURCES EXPECTS TO SELL 42 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN FIRST HALF - JAKARTA POST
PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Indonesia's largest thermal coal miner, expects to close the first half of this year with coal sales of 42 million to ...
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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