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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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