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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 03 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The global shipping industry is facing numerous challenges at a time when geopolitical turmoil has escalated in view of the recent tension in the M ...
Monday, 01 July 19
COAL DEMAND RISES, BUT REMAINS BELOW PEAK LEVELS - FORBES
This article is the third in a series on BP’s recently-released Statistical Review of World Energy 2019. The Review provides a comprehensive ...
Saturday, 29 June 19
ULTRAMAX: FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA MORE COAL WAS ENTERING THE MARKET - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market showed variability over the past week, as most routes were active yet sentiment differed from region to region. The Pacific ...
Wednesday, 26 June 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the first half of the year is almost over, it is worth looking back at the sale and purchase activity during these months, focusing on the segme ...
Tuesday, 25 June 19
THERMAL COAL FUTURES ON THE ZHENGSHOU EXCHANGE ROSE - DANIEL HYNES
Coal markets were buoyed by ongoing supply side issues.
According to Daniel Hynes, Senior Commodity Strategist of ANZ, the the ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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