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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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