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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
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- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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