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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 16 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA WAS SPLIT, WITH A BUILD-UP OF TONNAGE AND LACK OF ENQUIRY IN THE NORTH - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was a Brazilian affair with a strong splash of bunkers characterising the Capesize market over the past week. Largely traded in Eur ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITES BIDS FOR HCV AND LCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2019 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for total 460,000 to 500,000 Metric To ...
Wednesday, 10 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast with the general expectations for the dry bulk market, the sector was not positive or even stable during the past 6 months. The warning ...
Monday, 08 July 19
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE POSTS BIGGEST MONTHLY LOSS SINCE JANUARY 2017
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 08 July 19
ULTRAMAX: A 52,000-TONNER OPEN CJK FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA WITH RE-DELIVERY CHINA AT $6,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market surged over the past week, reaching highs not seen since August last year. Widespread activity in both basins saw ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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