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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 31 July 19
INDIA'S 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SEEN AT 180-185 MLN T - WOODMAC
India is expected to import 180-185 million tonnes of thermal coal in 2019, said Dale Hazelton, head of thermal coal at consultancy Wood Mackenzie. ...
Wednesday, 31 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was a fairly busy week in the dry S&P market. Despite the ease of Capesize rates which impacted Panamaxes as well, interest from potential b ...
Sunday, 28 July 19
ULTRAMAX - INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES SAW A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $11,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was a white knuckled ride this past week as a large downside movement shed value quickly leaving many in bewilderment. The ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.27 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.78 points Monday, down 0.27 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 24 July 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tonnes of ink has been spent analysing the rebound of the dry bulk market the last weeks with the most representative example being the rising perf ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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