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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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