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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 24 July 19
COAL'S DEMISE QUICKENS IN EUROPE AS MARKET SHIFT IDLES PLANTS - BLOOMBERG
Commodity markets are stripping away the case for coal in Europe, moving quicker than government efforts to close the most polluting power plants.
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Monday, 22 July 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA SAW INCREASED ACTIVITY AND STRONGER NUMBERS BEING CONCLUDED; INDONESIAN ROUNDS REMAINED FIRM - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Another week of gains as the Atlantic basin continues to be pressurised on tonnage and Brazilian cargoes keep up a steady flow. The Ca ...
Thursday, 18 July 19
WORLD TRADE IN HARD COAL ROSE BY 4.7% IN 2018 - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
World Trade in Hard Coal Rose by 4.7% in 2018
Hard Coal Can Prevent Stress in the Electric Power System in Germany
• Sharp decl ...
Wednesday, 17 July 19
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important waterways in the world, connecting crude producers in the Middle East with key markets in the res ...
Tuesday, 16 July 19
KING COAL RULES IN JAPAN AS POWER UTILITIES IN THRALL TO LOW-COST FUEL - REUTERS
Japanese utilities will rely on the return of coal-fired power plants from maintenance to meet peak electricity demand this summer, highlighting th ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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