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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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