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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 11 August 19
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000DWT VESSEL OPEN KEMAMAN FIXED FOR TWO TO THREE LADEN LEGS, REDELIVERY SINGAPORE-JAPAN, AT $12,250 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
With typhoon Lekima gathering pace, numerous China ports were closed by the end of the week and will likely be for two to three days. ...
Tuesday, 06 August 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 12th of May four tankers were attacked near the coast of Fujairah. The tankers hit were waiving international flags such as that of No ...
Monday, 05 August 19
SUPRAMAX: COAL FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA PAID AT MID $8,000S ON A 57,000-TONNER DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Having hit a high of $32,963 early last week, the Capesize 5TC now stands at $25,749. This is over 20% of its value lost in 10 days. C ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
PANAMAX: THE SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET IS STILL POSITIVE FOR THE LONGER TERM - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Two weeks ago the 5TC index was at 33,000 USD pd. Since then it has fallen off a bit and has stayed around 27,000 USD pd the last week ...
Thursday, 01 August 19
INDIKA ENERGY REVENUES DECLINE DUE TO LOW COAL PRICES
One of the largest Indonesian integrated energy companies PT Indika Energy Tbk posted revenues of US $ 1,380.4 million, down 4.6% compared to US $ ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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