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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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