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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 15 September 19
SUPRAMAX / ULTRAMAX: MORE STEMS WERE NOTICED GOING TO VIETNAM FROM INDONESIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Overall it was a negative week for the Capesize market, with many routes losing ground. A limited amount of time charter appeare ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FELL HEAVILY IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
Wednesday, 11 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We are going through one of the rare instances where we see optimism building in the dry bulk industry and, as the momentum is still going, the bel ...
Monday, 09 September 19
INDIAN COMPANIES READY TO INVEST IN DEVELOPMENT OF NEW COAL DEPOSITS IN RUSSIA'S YAKUTIA - TASS
Indian metallurgical companies, which received trial batches of coal from Kolmar mining company, are satisfied with the quality of the products and ...
Monday, 09 September 19
COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT DOWN YEAR-ON-YEAR IN 2ND QUARTER - REUTERS
Colombia, the world’s fifth-largest exporter of coal, produced 18.9 million tonnes of the fuel in the second quarter, down 4.5% from the same ...
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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