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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 23 September 19
CHINA RECORDS SLOWER GROWTH IN COAL PRODUCTION - XINHUA
The growth of China’s raw coal production slowed down in August, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
Aro ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA TO INVITE BIDS FOR COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN DECEMBER - MINISTER FOR COAL
India aims to begin the process of holding the first round of commercial coal mining auctions December end, Minister for Coal, Mines and Parliament ...
Friday, 20 September 19
INDIA: ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN IMPACTS COAL IMPORT CARGO IN H1 FY20 - PTI
Economic slowdown has impacted coal import cargo in the first half of this fiscal, as overall cargo growth at major ports registered a marginal gro ...
Wednesday, 18 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the first week of September, I had the privilege of attending the Donsö Shipping Meet 2019, in Donsö, a small island of around 1,& ...
Tuesday, 17 September 19
PANAMA SHIP REGISTRY MODERNIZES SHIP REGISTRATION
The Panama Ship Registry has announced it will integrate in a single platform “Electronic Ship Registration System (ESRS)” the present ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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