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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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