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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 27 September 19
LOWDOWN ON INCOTERMS 2020 OVERHAUL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This ninth revision of Incoterms is changed in style and substance. The revisions improve certain aspects of Incoterms 20 ...
Thursday, 26 September 19
INDIA INCREASES ITS ANNUAL COAL PRODUCTION BY 2.7% PER YEAR FROM 850 MILLION SHORT TONS IN 2018 TO 2 BILLION SHORT TONS BY 2050 - EIA
Worldwide coal production holds steady at about 8 billion short tons, or 160 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu), per year through 2040. Inc ...
Wednesday, 25 September 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In the past five months there has been significant activity in the asset market with the dry bulk segment being by far the most volatile in terms o ...
Tuesday, 24 September 19
9TH ANNUAL SUPPLY CHAIN INNOVATION SUMMIT 2019 ASIA PACIFIC
Summit: 9th Annual Supply Chain Innovation Summit 2019 Asia Pacific
Host: Ace Events
Website: http: ...
Monday, 23 September 19
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN ARENA IT WAS A SLOW START, BUT DEMAND INCREASED AS THE WEEK WENT ON - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market trended down over this past week, breaking the market out of its upward trending range. While the market traded sideways at ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
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