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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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Showing 1316 to 1320 news of total 6871 |
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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