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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 15 October 19
INDIA READIES POLICY TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTMENT IN COAL MINING - REUTERS
India expects to have formulated a policy within the next two weeks to attract foreign investment to its coal mining industry, the country's Co ...
Monday, 14 October 19
WINTER OIL MARKET OUTLOOK - OPEC
Product markets in the last two months have benefitted from seasonal maintenance which have led to a tighter product market environment, providing ...
Sunday, 13 October 19
INDONESIA: PANAMAX VESSELS OPEN SOUTH CHINA WERE REPORTEDLY FIXED AT $14,000 LEVEL, WITH REDELIVERY BACK IN CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market managed to find a floor and rally a little this week after several weeks of declines. While the West Australia to ...
Friday, 11 October 19
INDIAN MINERS REJECT PLAN TO LINK NATIONAL COAL INDEX TO FOREIGN PRICES - REUTERS
India’s miners are rejecting a government proposal to establish a national coal index that would be linked to international prices, documents ...
Friday, 11 October 19
THE OCTOBER BENCHMARK PRICE OF INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL DECLINES TO LOWEST SINCE OCTOBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal ...
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Showing 1316 to 1320 news of total 6871 |
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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