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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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