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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 21 October 19
SHIPPERS CHANGE COURSE AS FUEL RULES TARGET SULPHUR EMISSIONS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the industry’s regulator, will require all ships to reduce the level of sulphur in their engin ...
Monday, 21 October 19
COAL TO PLAY SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN SOUTH AFRICA POWER MIX - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
South Africa’s plans for additional power generation over the next decade will involve a variety of energy sources, with coal still playing a ...
Monday, 21 October 19
ULTRAMAX: IN ASIA, TRIPS FROM THE SINGAPORE AREA WERE PAYING BETWEEN $14,000 AND $16,000, DEPENDING ON THE VESSEL SIZE AND DURATION - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market traded in a relatively stable supported manner in the Pacific this week while the Atlantic experienced weakening turbulence ...
Friday, 18 October 19
WHY CRUDE TANKER RATES JUST FELL (HALFWAY) BACK TO EARTH - FREIGHT WAVES
Panic drove crude-tanker rates up, very briefly, to mind-bogglingly high assessed levels of around $300,000 per day. Now, the fear factor has been ...
Friday, 18 October 19
SHORT TERM STRENGTH FOR OZ COMMODITIES - BALTIC BRIEFING
Volatility in the global commodity markets is not expected to unduly rattle Australia’s commodity outlook through 2020, but the 2021 picture ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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