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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 04 November 19
COAL INDIA'S OCTOBER PRODUCTION MAY FALL 20% - PTI
Coal India’s production in October is likely to be 19-20 per cent lower at about 40 million tonne, as compared to 49.77 million tonne produce ...
Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
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Showing 1296 to 1300 news of total 6871 |
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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