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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 04 November 19
COAL INDIA'S OCTOBER PRODUCTION MAY FALL 20% - PTI
Coal India’s production in October is likely to be 19-20 per cent lower at about 40 million tonne, as compared to 49.77 million tonne produce ...
Monday, 04 November 19
PANAMAX: WEAKER SENTIMENTS CONTINUED FROM LAST WEEK, WITH RATES FURTHER SOFTENING IN BOTH BASINS - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market meandered slightly upwards this week before giving back much of its gains mid-week. Opening the week at $24,945, t ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
U.S. COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS SCHEDULED TO SHUT - REUTERS
U.S. power companies expect to retire or convert from coal to gas over 13,800 megawatts (MW) of coal-fired plants in 2019 after shutting over 13,30 ...
Thursday, 31 October 19
SE ASIA MAY BECOME NET FOSSIL FUEL IMPORTER IN COMING YEARS - IEA
Southeast Asia is set to become a key driver of world energy trends over the next 20 years as its energy demand grows at twice the global average, ...
Monday, 28 October 19
ULTRAMAX: ASIA RATES REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE WITH THE NORTH LACKING FRESH ENQUIRY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The end of the week brought about a small increase in sentiment heading into a long weekend for some regions. After sustaining a drop ...
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Showing 1296 to 1300 news of total 6871 |
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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