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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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