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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 13 November 19
INDONESIAN NOVEMBER COAL PRICE REFERENCE LOGS FIRST GAIN SINCE AUGUST
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The improvements seen in the dry bulk market during the unexpectedly strong Q3 brought enthusiasm and optimism for a last quarter rally. Indeed as ...
Tuesday, 12 November 19
COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS SLIP 18 PC TO 51 MT IN APRIL-OCTOBER - ECONOMIC TIMES
The Indian Ports Association (IPA), which maintains cargo data handled by these 12 ports, in its recent report, said "percentage variation fro ...
Monday, 11 November 19
EMINENT MARITIME ORGANIZATIONS AND INDIVIDUALS WERE HONORED
SHIPTEK 2019 Anchors in Greece for its 12th edition.
Eminent Maritime Organizations and Individuals were honored
Greec ...
Wednesday, 06 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With less than two months before the end of the year, the shipping and refining industries have already taken measures and invested to accommodate ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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