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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 20 November 19
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS IN COMMERCIAL COAL MINING IN INDIA? - DIPESH DIPU
In August 2019, Government of India announced its approval for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) for coal mining, processing and sale. Not that FDI i ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
AUSTRALIA'S NEW HOPE POSTS 66% SURGE IN Q1 SALEABLE COAL OUTPUT - REUTERS
Australian coal producer New Hope Corp Ltd reported on Tuesday a 66% jump in saleable coal production in the first quarter, as output ramped up at ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
THE IMO AND THE PRICE OF GAS OR THE IMPACT OF THE INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANISATION'S SULPHUR 2020 LIMIT FOR MARINE FUEL OIL ON THE PRICE OF GAS - KING & SPALDING
The main bunker fuel for ships is High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO, with sulphur up to 3.5% m/m (mass by mass)). This will all change on 1 January 2020 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the market expects the next OPEC meeting, there are still no clear signs indicating that the organization will keep supporting oil prices, wh ...
Monday, 18 November 19
CHINA RECORDS STABLE COAL PRODUCTION IN JAN-OCT: XINHUA
China’s raw coal output registered stable growth in the first 10 months, while its imports remained robust, official data showed.
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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