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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Friday, 22 November 19
FORTY PERCENT OF ADARO'S COAL SALES VOLUME IN 9M19 GOES TO THE SOUTHEAST ASIA REGION
PT Adaro Energy Tbk released its consolidated financial statements yesterday, for the nine month period, ending September 30, 2019.
...
Friday, 22 November 19
UNCERTAINTY IN THERMAL COAL MARKET PERSISTED IN 3Q19 - ADARO
Uncertainty in thermal coal market persisted in 3Q19, mainly due to the actions, or inactions, of China in setting policies for global coal market. ...
Friday, 22 November 19
CIL TO DEVELOP 55 NEW COAL MINES IN NEXT 5 YEARS: COAL MINISTER
State-owned CIL will develop 55 new coal mines and expand 193 existing ones in the next five years, Parliament was informed. The company is also un ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
4TH DEEP OFFSHORE WEST AFRICA CONGRESS 2020
4th Deep Offshore West Africa Congress 2020
17 Janaury 2020
Accra, Ghana
Press Release: Following the great succ ...
Thursday, 21 November 19
INDONESIA PLANS TO KEEP $70/T COAL PRICE CAP FOR PLN, DMO - REUTERS
Indonesia’s energy minister Arifin Tasrif said his ministry plans to maintain a price cap on coal being sold to state electricity utility, PT ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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