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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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