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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 30 November 19
IMO2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CUT: GERMAN SHIPPING TO USE NEW TYPE OF FUEL VDR SURVEY
IMO2020 Global sulphur cut: German shipping to use new type of fuel VDR survey: Technical issues and costs are the biggest challenges - VDR
&nb ...
Saturday, 30 November 19
PANAMAX: LEVELS IMPROVED IN THE PACIFIC MARKET TOO WITH $11,000 BEING CONCLUDED ON AN 81,000DWT SHIP FOR AN INDONESIA TO CHINA COAL TRIP - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market has been well supported over the past week, led primarily by the Atlantic Basin. After bottoming last week, sentiment was s ...
Friday, 29 November 19
FITCHRATINGS MAINTAINS NEGATIVE 2020 OUTLOOK ON SHIPPING, AS TIGHTER SUPPLY HELPS, BUT SOFTER DEMAND DRAGS
Fitch’s Sector Outlook: Negative
We maintain a negative sector outlook for global shipping because of the forecast slowdown of ...
Friday, 29 November 19
INDONESIA PRODUCES 390 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN JAN-SEPT: MINISTER - REUTERS
Indonesia’s production of coal for the January-September period was 390 million tonnes, Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Arifin Tasrif s ...
Wednesday, 27 November 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the end of the fourth quarter is approaching, one could say that the wet market has maintained the strong pace observed during the third qu ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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