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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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