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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 04 December 19
FITCH RATINGS: CASH FLOW GENERATION TO SLOW DOWN FOR INDONESIAN COAL MINERS
Fitch Ratings' negative outlook on the Indonesian coal-mining sector reflects our view of weaker cash flow generation on account of declining c ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry bulk freight rates rebounded last week, a development that came as a relief following the recent negative sentiment that prevailed in the marke ...
Wednesday, 04 December 19
INDONESIA REVIEWING RULES MANDATING COAL SALES TO LOCAL BUYERS: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
Indonesia is reviewing rules that require coal miners to sell a portion of their coal to local buyers, a government official said on Monday, as sup ...
Tuesday, 03 December 19
STABILITY AND COMPATIBILITY OF VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL OILS - GARD
In order to meet increasing restrictions on the sulphur content in marine fuel as defined by MARPOL Annex VI Regulation 14.1.3, the characteristics ...
Monday, 02 December 19
COAL PRODUCTION IN INDIA UP BY 164.58 MT IN 5 YEARS - BUSINESS LINE
Raw coal production in the country has increased from 567.77 million tons (MT) in 2013-14 to 730.35 MT in 2018-19, Union Coal and Parliamentary Aff ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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