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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
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- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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