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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 07 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL PRICE SURGE, WHILE OTHERS LANGUISH, IS TROUBLING - REUTERS
Coal prices around the world are gently sliding as demand from top importers such as China, India and even Europe remains subdued amid a so far mil ...
Saturday, 07 December 19
SUPRAMAX: OVERALL, THE BALTIC SUPRAMAX INDEX REMAINED IN POSITIVE MODE, DESPITE SOME AREAS LACKING FRESH ACTIVITY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week the Capesize market maintained healthy earnings, as an end of year surge took the Capesize 5TC back up to $25,202 by mid-wee ...
Friday, 06 December 19
INDONESIA COAL BENCHMARK PRICE FOR DECEMBER INCREASES BY US 3 CENTS MOM
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 December 19
IMO 2020 IS ABOUT TO GET REAL - GAVIN THOMPSON
As I write this edition of the APAC Energy Buzz from my desk in Singapore I can see ships. Lots of ships. No surprise given that Singapore is among ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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