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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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