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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 17 December 19
AUSTRALIA ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR TURNS SCROOGE ON COAL LOBBY: RUSSELL
Australia, which vies with Indonesia for the title of the world’s largest coal exporter, is planning for an electricity future where use of t ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
BACK TO FUTURE FOR BUSH AS AUSTRALIA CONSIDERS MOVING AWAY FROM COAL NEWCASTLE - HERALD
Looking backwards could show the way forward for regional communities planning for a future beyond mining.
One of Australia’s ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.01 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points, down 0.01 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Taiy ...
Tuesday, 17 December 19
YEAR 2019: IT IS LOOKING SET THAT THIS YEAR WILL BE ONE OF THE SLOWEST IN TERMS OF DRY BULK NEWBUILDING ACTIVITY - ALLIED
With just two weeks remaining before 2019 comes to an end, it is now looking set that this year will be one of the slowest in terms of dry bulk new ...
Monday, 16 December 19
ULTRAMAX: A 63,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY FOR A SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, FOR RE-DELIVERY TO CHINA AT $11,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
It was one-way traffic for the Capesize market this past week, with all routes giving up value. While downward momentum may have slowe ...
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Showing 1241 to 1245 news of total 6871 |
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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