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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 22 December 19
NMDC DIVERSIFIES INTO COAL MINING - THE HINDU
Iron ore mining major NMDC has been allocated two coal blocks in Jharkhand for commercial mining by the Union Ministry of Coal.
Both ...
Sunday, 22 December 19
TRADING PLACES FOR 2020 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
In the sea of 2020 predictions, Saxo Bank’s Outrageous Predictions sail their own very unique course. For nearly 20 years the Danish investme ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000 DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasi ...
Saturday, 21 December 19
SHIPPING'S SUPPLY AND DEMAND TRENDING OFF BALANCE - BIMCO
One of the most worrying trends that has developed recently – which will affect shipping demand in the years to come – is the falling t ...
Friday, 20 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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