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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 29 December 19
AUSTRALIA SUFFERS WORST OF CHINA'S COAL CURBS AFTER EARLIER BOOM - BLOOMBERG
Australia is bearing the brunt of China’s year-end coal import restrictions, ceding market share to other exporters including Russia and Mong ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasing ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL CITY TO FURTHER CUT COAL CONSUMPTION - XINHUA
Harbin, capital city of Heilongjiang Province in China’s northeastern industrial heartland, is planning to further reduce its coal consumptio ...
Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world ...
Thursday, 26 December 19
REVIEW OF 2019 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2020 - OPEC
Global economic growth slowed in 2019, impacted by a variety of challenges. Trade issues not only led to reduction in global final consumption but ...
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Showing 1221 to 1225 news of total 6871 |
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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