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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 29 December 19
AUSTRALIA SUFFERS WORST OF CHINA'S COAL CURBS AFTER EARLIER BOOM - BLOOMBERG
Australia is bearing the brunt of China’s year-end coal import restrictions, ceding market share to other exporters including Russia and Mong ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
SUPRAMAX: A 63,000DWT VESSEL, OPEN CIGADING, FIXED A TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, AT $8,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week has been attempting to recalibrate itself in consideration of weakening freight levels and increasing ...
Saturday, 28 December 19
CHINESE INDUSTRIAL CITY TO FURTHER CUT COAL CONSUMPTION - XINHUA
Harbin, capital city of Heilongjiang Province in China’s northeastern industrial heartland, is planning to further reduce its coal consumptio ...
Friday, 27 December 19
MISERY LOOMS OVER TOP COAL SHIPPERS AS CHINA TO BUY LESS IN 2020 BLOOMBERG
China isn’t cutting back on consumption of the most-polluting fossil fuel just yet, but it is set to reduce imports.
The world ...
Thursday, 26 December 19
REVIEW OF 2019 AND OUTLOOK FOR 2020 - OPEC
Global economic growth slowed in 2019, impacted by a variety of challenges. Trade issues not only led to reduction in global final consumption but ...
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Showing 1221 to 1225 news of total 6871 |
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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