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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 02 January 20
SULPHUR 2020 COMPENDIUM - HOW ARE INDIVIDUAL PORT STATES EXPECTED TO REACT? - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With the new sulphur limits soon to be in force, Standard Club has been investigating the ways in which certain jurisdict ...
Monday, 30 December 19
AUSTRALIAN MINERS HIT BY LOWEST THERMAL COAL PRICE IN MORE THAN A DECADE - THE GUARDIAN
Australian coal exporters have experienced the biggest annual drop in thermal coal prices in more than a decade during 2019, raising doubts about i ...
Monday, 30 December 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS RISE 4% TO 161.43 MT IN APRIL-NOVEMBER 2019 - PTI
The country’s coal imports registered an increase of 4.4 per cent to 161.43 million tonnes (MT) in the April-November period of the ongoing f ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
IMO 2020 COMPLIANCE: IT'S UP TO US TO BE GOOD CITIZENS - IBIA
One of the concerns around implementation of the 0.50% sulphur limit has been, and continues to be, the need for effective enforcement to ensure a ...
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Showing 1216 to 1220 news of total 6871 |
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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