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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 02 January 20
SULPHUR 2020 COMPENDIUM - HOW ARE INDIVIDUAL PORT STATES EXPECTED TO REACT? - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
With the new sulphur limits soon to be in force, Standard Club has been investigating the ways in which certain jurisdict ...
Monday, 30 December 19
AUSTRALIAN MINERS HIT BY LOWEST THERMAL COAL PRICE IN MORE THAN A DECADE - THE GUARDIAN
Australian coal exporters have experienced the biggest annual drop in thermal coal prices in more than a decade during 2019, raising doubts about i ...
Monday, 30 December 19
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS RISE 4% TO 161.43 MT IN APRIL-NOVEMBER 2019 - PTI
The country’s coal imports registered an increase of 4.4 per cent to 161.43 million tonnes (MT) in the April-November period of the ongoing f ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Sunday, 29 December 19
IMO 2020 COMPLIANCE: IT'S UP TO US TO BE GOOD CITIZENS - IBIA
One of the concerns around implementation of the 0.50% sulphur limit has been, and continues to be, the need for effective enforcement to ensure a ...
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Showing 1216 to 1220 news of total 6871 |
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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