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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Wednesday, 25 December 19
COVER FOR WAR AND TERRORISM RISKS, AND COVER IN RESPECT OF BIOLOGICAL AND BIO-CHEMICAL WEAPONS - 2020 POLICY YEAR: AMERICAN CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
This Circular describes the arrangements which have been made to provide special cover for war and terrorism risks, and c ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
EXHAUST GAS CLEANING SYSTEMS (SCRUBBER) GUIDANCE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In a few weeks, IMO’s ‘global sulphur cap’ will take effect. The permitted levels of SOx in ship emissi ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
INDONESIAN BUKIT ASAM TARGETS TO MINE 30 MLN T OF COAL IN 2020 - REUTERS
Indonesian state-owned coal miner PT Bukit Asam targets to produce around 30 million tonnes of coal in 2020, compared with an estimate of 28.5 mill ...
Wednesday, 25 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As another year in the shipping industry is coming to an end, it is interesting to look at the dry bulk and tanker markets and how these performed ...
Monday, 23 December 19
VLSFO PRICING & AVAILABILITY NEEDS CAREFUL WATCHING - INTEGR8 FUELS
As we approach January 1st 2020 , the VLSFO price premium to HSFO has widened considerably
We are clearly well into the IMO 2020 transition; ch ...
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Showing 1226 to 1230 news of total 6871 |
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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