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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
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Showing 1236 to 1240 news of total 6871 |
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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