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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 19 December 19
COAL POWER GENERATION CONTINUES TO DECLINE IN GERMANY: DESTATIS, XINHUA REPORTED
The volume of electricity generated in coal-fired power plants in Germany decreased “markedly” by 37 percent to 34 billion kilowatt-hou ...
Thursday, 19 December 19
BANGLADESH'S NBR CUTS VAT ON COAL IMPORT FOR POWER PLANTS - THE DAILY STAR
The National Board of Revenue (NBR) reduced value added tax on the import of coal for power plants to 5 percent from present 15 percent for five ye ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
AVERAGE PRICES OF COAL IN 2018 WERE MORE THAN 60% HIGHER THAN IN 2016 - IEA
Coal use grew again in 2018.
Global coal demand increased by 1.1%, continuing the rebound that began in 2017 after three years of decline ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
ASIA IS SET TO SUPPORT GLOBAL COAL DEMAND FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS - IEA
Press Release: Global coal demand is expected to decline in 2019 but remain broadly stable over the next five years, supported by robust growth in ...
Wednesday, 18 December 19
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know very well by now, the reduction in the maximum allowable sulphur content of marine fuels in 2020 is likely to have a massive impact ...
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Showing 1236 to 1240 news of total 6871 |
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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