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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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