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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Monday, 16 December 19
THE OUTLOOK FOR U.S. THERMAL COAL IS INCREASINGLY STRESSED - MOODY'S
- Slowing global economic growth, trade tensions will continue to exert influence
- Coal's secular decline will persist in 2020
...
Thursday, 12 December 19
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.28 MILLION TONS OF MIN.4,400 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,280,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Wednesday, 11 December 19
PANAMAX: THE MARKET REMAINED FIRM IN THE PACIFIC, WITH INCREASED ACTIVITY NOTED IN KEY AREAS, SUCH AS INDONESIA - ALLIED
Capesize – Positive momentum was resumed this past week, with earnings mak-ing some gains once again. This rising pattern was reflected in th ...
Tuesday, 10 December 19
PREPARATIONS INTENSIFY AS IMO 2020 GLOBAL SULPHUR CAP LOOMS - STANDARD CLUB
With less than a month to go for the impending IMO 2020 global sulphur cap, the club has started witnessing dispute cases relating to the measureme ...
Monday, 09 December 19
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO LTD IS INVITING OFFERS FOR MIN 3700 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd has issued an international tender for 160,000 Tons steam coal.
Acco ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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