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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
BHP EYES INDIA FOR COAL GROWTH AS CHINA DEMAND FLATLINES - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Australia’s largest miner, BHP, believes the long-term trajectory of the emerging economy of India and the acceleration of its steelmaking ou ...
Sunday, 05 January 20
BUNKER QUALITY CLAIMS IN 2020 - ISSUES TO CONSIDER - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In recent years the shipping industry has faced a significant number of bunker quality claims, most notably ari ...
Saturday, 04 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A 53,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY INDONESIA TRIP TO CHINA AT $4,000 AND A 58,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP TO THAILAND AT $5,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The New Year started with an erosion on pre-Christmas rates as the higher low sulphur fuel costs due to IMO 2020 affected levels. From ...
Thursday, 02 January 20
DMO 2020 PRICE SET FOR ELECTRICITY SECTOR - IAN WOLLFF
On the 26th December 2019, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) issued the decree No. 261.K/30.MEM/2019 about the States needs for c ...
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Showing 1211 to 1215 news of total 6871 |
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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