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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 07 January 20
CLEANER AIR IN 2020: 0.5% SULPHUR CAP FOR SHIPS ENTERS INTO FORCE WORLDWIDE - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
From 1 January 2020, the maximum sulphur content of marine fuels is reduced to 0.5% (down from 3.5%) globally – reducing air pollution and pr ...
Tuesday, 07 January 20
BHP EYES INDIA FOR COAL GROWTH AS CHINA DEMAND FLATLINES - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Australia’s largest miner, BHP, believes the long-term trajectory of the emerging economy of India and the acceleration of its steelmaking ou ...
Sunday, 05 January 20
BUNKER QUALITY CLAIMS IN 2020 - ISSUES TO CONSIDER - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In recent years the shipping industry has faced a significant number of bunker quality claims, most notably ari ...
Saturday, 04 January 20
SUPRAMAX: A 53,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY INDONESIA TRIP TO CHINA AT $4,000 AND A 58,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN TRIP TO THAILAND AT $5,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The New Year started with an erosion on pre-Christmas rates as the higher low sulphur fuel costs due to IMO 2020 affected levels. From ...
Thursday, 02 January 20
DMO 2020 PRICE SET FOR ELECTRICITY SECTOR - IAN WOLLFF
On the 26th December 2019, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) issued the decree No. 261.K/30.MEM/2019 about the States needs for c ...
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Showing 1211 to 1215 news of total 6871 |
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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