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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA COAL RUNS, A 58,000DWT SHIP WAS RUMOURED FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, IN THE $4,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Closing out the first full trading week of 2020, the Capesize market is struggling to gain any solid positive upward traction. Opening ...
Friday, 10 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remains flat
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
...
Thursday, 09 January 20
NEW IMO LIFEBOAT REQUIREMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Three new compulsory IMO resolutions entered into force on 1 January 2020. These resolutions deal with the maintenance, t ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
INDIA'S NEW EASED MINING RULES TO ENHANCE FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN COAL SECTOR: MINISTER
India’s cabinet has eased mining laws in a bid to attract foreign players to the domestic coal sector and reduce imports of the fuel, coal mi ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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