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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 11 January 20
BALTIC BRIEFING TANKER REPORT - WEEK 2
VLCC
Escalating tensions between the USA and Iran, in addition to a continuing strong market, made for an interesting week, with rates firming ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDONESIA COAL RUNS, A 58,000DWT SHIP WAS RUMOURED FIXED DELIVERY KALIMANTAN, REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA, IN THE $4,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Closing out the first full trading week of 2020, the Capesize market is struggling to gain any solid positive upward traction. Opening ...
Friday, 10 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remains flat
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
...
Thursday, 09 January 20
NEW IMO LIFEBOAT REQUIREMENTS ENTER INTO FORCE - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Three new compulsory IMO resolutions entered into force on 1 January 2020. These resolutions deal with the maintenance, t ...
Thursday, 09 January 20
INDIA'S NEW EASED MINING RULES TO ENHANCE FOREIGN PARTICIPATION IN COAL SECTOR: MINISTER
India’s cabinet has eased mining laws in a bid to attract foreign players to the domestic coal sector and reduce imports of the fuel, coal mi ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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