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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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