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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 14 January 20
MABUX: BUNKER MARKET THIS MORNING, JAN.14
MABUX World Bunker Index (consists of a range of prices for 380 HSFO, 180 HSFO and MGO (Gasoil) in the main world hubs) changed insignificant and i ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPBROKING
Uncertainty in the global geopolitical sphere seems to have not come to an end along with 2019, as 2020 commenced with renewed tensions between the ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
DRY BULK MARKET: "THIS IS NOT THE END OF COAL" SAYS IEA - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A historic drop in coal-fired electricity generation will not sway global coal demand from its upward trajectory through to 2024, though growth wil ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
ARE YOU 95% CONFIDENT THAT YOUR VERY LOW SULPHUR FUEL IS ON SPEC AND MARPOL COMPLIANT? - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Bunker fuel is a commodity and, like all commodities, is produced and sold according to specifications. Bunkers are usual ...
Saturday, 11 January 20
NEW PRICING COULD SPELL TROUBLE FOR CHINA'S COAL SECTOR - CHINA DIALOGUE
Benchmark coal tariffs have been the foundation of China’s electricity pricing since 2004 but this mechanism was replaced on January 1 with a ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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