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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
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Showing 1191 to 1195 news of total 6871 |
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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