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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 16 January 20
SUPRAMAX: INDO/CHINA ROUND VOYAGE FIXING AROUND LOW/MID USD 6,000 BSS APS INDO - FEARNLEYS
Capesize
Still very rough seas for the big ships, with the majority of the fleet trading Far East or fronthaul and consequently earning far les ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
ASIA PACIFIC GAS AND LNG - 6 THEMES TO WATCH IN 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
NEWS RELEASE
Wood Mackenzie has identified six themes that will impact Asia Pacific’s gas and LNG markets in 2020
Asian LNG spot pr ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: 'SLOWBALISATION" IS THE NEW GLOBALISATION - PWC
Projecting what the future holds is an important exercise for businesses looking to plan ahead. Below we present a summary of some of the themes we ...
Wednesday, 15 January 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INERMODAL
Happy New Year and all the best for IMO 2020 !!
The early days of IMO 2020 coming into force have certainly had an impact on the indus ...
Tuesday, 14 January 20
SOLAS AMENDMENTS ENTERING INTO FORCE 1 JANUARY 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
While the latest amendments to MARPOL annex VI which entered into force on 1 January 2020 limiting the SOx emissions from ships has been the centre ...
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Showing 1191 to 1195 news of total 6871 |
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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