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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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