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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Saturday, 18 January 20
BIMCO: LOW-SULPHUR FUEL SALE JUMPS TO A 70% SHARE IN SINGAPORE, AS THE IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP KICKS IN
The final quarter of 2019 marked a massive decline of HSFO sales, as the industry transitioned into compliance of the IMO 2020 Sulphur Cap (IMO2020 ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
GERMAN STEAM COAL IMPORTS IN 2019 PLUMMETED BY 17 % - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Press Release: According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), world trade in h ...
Saturday, 18 January 20
A 61,400 DWT FIXED FROM SOUTH EAST ASIA DELIVERY EAST KALIMANTAN REDELIVERY WEST COAST INDIA IN THE LOW $7,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market was relatively stable over this past week putting an end to the past months of more extreme declines. While the Capesize 5T ...
Friday, 17 January 20
EIA ESTIMATES THAT U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED BY 65 MMST (9%) TO 690 MMST IN 2019. IN 2020, COAL PRODUCTION WILL DECLINE BY A FURTHER 14% TO 597 MMST
U.S. Coal Supply.
EIA estimates that U.S. coal production declined by 65 million short tons (MMst) (9%) to 690 MMst in 2019. In 2020, EIA ...
Friday, 17 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index, a gauge of coal p ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
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