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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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