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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 21 January 20
ASIA'S APPETITE FOR COAL GROWS, WITH CHINA THE KEY DECIDER - NIKKEI
Although renewable power generation is expected to rise significantly in Asia, India’s vast electricity needs will still underpin global dema ...
Tuesday, 21 January 20
THERMAL COAL PRICES SET FOR RECOVERY THIS YEAR AS OVERSUPPLY TIGHTENS - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices are expected to recover this year after losing around a third of their value last year as demand from some south-east Asian cou ...
Monday, 20 January 20
INDIA TO STOP SUBSTITUTABLE COAL IMPORT; CAN GO FOR AUCTION OF 100 FULLY EXPLORED NEW BLOCKS: JOSHI - PTI
The Cabinet recently approved promulgation of Mineral Laws (Amendment) Ordinance 2020 to amend Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation ) Act ...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA DECEMBER COAL OUTPUT UP 2.4 PERCENT ON YEAR - STATS BUREAU: REUTERS
China produced 331.74 million tonnes of coal in December, up 2.4 percent on the year, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.
...
Monday, 20 January 20
CHINA IMPORTED 124.4 MLN TONNES OF COAL FROM INDONESIA IN 2019, UP 15.1 PERCENT YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports raced ahead in 2019, surprising many who had expected that in the months of 2019 to come the government would clamp down s ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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