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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SHIPPING NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS WARNS HILL DICKINSON
The shipping industry needs to be prepared for potential restrictions in order to prevent the further spread of the ‘Wuhan’ coronavirus ...
Friday, 24 January 20
LOW-SULPHUR FUEL OIL PRICES DROP USD 99 PER MT IN SINGAPORE - BIMCO
Singapore has seen one of the largest drops in the price of Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), which peaked on 7 January 2020 at USD 740 per metric ...
Friday, 24 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINED FLAT DURING THE PAST WEEK - XINHUA
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of coal prices in north China’s major ports, stood at 553 yuan (about 80.1 U.S. dollars) ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
PANAMAX: ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE PACIFIC BASIN - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
From bad to worse for the biggest ships as prices for low-sulphur fuel oil remain high whilst freight rates deteriorate further. Aver ...
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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