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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 30 January 20
PRIVATE SECTOR COMPANIES SEEK 'LEVEL PLAYING FIELD' FOR COAL BLOCK AUCTION - PTI
Private sector companies scouting opportunities for commercial coal mining in the country are seeking a “level playing field” to encour ...
Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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