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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 30 January 20
PRIVATE SECTOR COMPANIES SEEK 'LEVEL PLAYING FIELD' FOR COAL BLOCK AUCTION - PTI
Private sector companies scouting opportunities for commercial coal mining in the country are seeking a “level playing field” to encour ...
Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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