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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 04 February 20
CAPE: THE AVERAGE EARNINGS PER DAY FELL BENEATH THE USD 4,000, A LEVEL CONSIDERABLY BELOW EVEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OPEX LEVELS - ALLIED
The recent slump in the dry bulk freight market may well have been expected to some degree, but despite this the shock was still overwhelming when ...
Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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