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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Tuesday, 04 February 20
CAPE: THE AVERAGE EARNINGS PER DAY FELL BENEATH THE USD 4,000, A LEVEL CONSIDERABLY BELOW EVEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OPEX LEVELS - ALLIED
The recent slump in the dry bulk freight market may well have been expected to some degree, but despite this the shock was still overwhelming when ...
Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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