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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 06 February 20
CHINESE DEMAND KEY UNCERTAINTY FOR SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2020 - THE BRICS POST
Coal trader Noble Resources head of research Rodrigo Echeverri Cardozo had penciled in a 3 Mt drop in Chinese import demand for 2020, but it could ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - WATSON, FARLEY & WILLIAMS
The continued spread of Coronavirus and governmental measures to minimise the impact is likely to affect the shipping industry and supply chain.
...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
INDONESIA'S COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP 1.46% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The oil and gas industry benefitted from a strong and solid ground in the previous year. We witnessed a slow but steady increase in bunker’s ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
RUSSIA EXPORTED 28.6 MLN TONNES OF LNG IN 2019 - REFINITIV
A lot of attention has been paid recently on the surge in LNG exports from the United States. However, another country which is seeing truly expone ...
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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