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Friday, 12 April 19
OIL MARKET REPORT: MIXED SIGNALS - IEA
 The huge increase in oil production we saw in 2H18 has reversed following the implementation of the new Vienna Agreement and the increasing effectiveness of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. Production by OPEC countries in March was 2.2 mb/d lower than in November and now there is uncertainty concerning Libya. Production by non-OPEC producers in 1Q19 was 0.7 mb/d lower than in 4Q18. This turnaround in supply has contributed to a dramatic increase in prices, with Brent crude rising from $50/bbl at the end of December to more than $70/bbl today.
Tightness in the oil market, however, is not just a supply story. In recent months, the resilience of demand has received less attention than the vicissitudes of production, but it is very important too. Data for 2018 is still incomplete but we can be confident that demand growth was about 1.3 mb/d. As far as 2019 is concerned, amongst the analyst community there is an extraordinarily wide divergence of view as to how strong growth will be. We maintain our forecast of 1.4 mb/d, but accept that there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices.
In terms of real numbers for 2019, although it is still early days the major centres of oil demand growth are performing strongly. In China, the economy seems to be reacting to the government’s stimulus measures with purchasing managers’ indices increasing and export orders recovering, although there are signs that air cargo volumes might be falling. Preliminary oil demand numbers for the January-February period show solid growth of 410 kb/d year-on-year. Elsewhere, demand was strong in the same period, with India growing by 300 kb/d, and the US, which continues to be supported by the petrochemical sector, by 295 kb/d.
Although the main sources of growth are doing well, there are mixed signals from elsewhere. Overall demand in the OECD countries fell by 0.3 mb/d y-o-y in 4Q18, the first such fall for any quarter since the end of 2014, and it is likely to have fallen again in 1Q19 due to weakness in some European economies, with perhaps more to come if there is a disorderly Brexit. There are uncertainties in Argentina and Turkey and signs of only modest demand recovery in the Middle East despite the stimulus provided by rising crude oil prices. Concerns about trade talks linger, and the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund, although it should be noted that the IMF does not expect a recession in the near term. Clearly, oil prices at $70/bbl for Brent, are less comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year and the IEA has regularly warned of the dangers of prices rising even higher. Only time will tell if our current demand forecast proves accurate, but the risks are currently to the downside.
When the first Vienna Agreement to cut oil production was made in 2017, progress was measured by total OECD stocks falling to the five-year average level. The second Agreement is underway, and data for February show that stocks are above the average by 16 mb. However, in terms of days of forward demand cover, which is a more relevant assessment, they are below it, and have been for some time. Incidentally, it is worth mentioning middle distillate stocks, particularly in light of January’s implementation of new International Maritime Organisation fuel specifications. If half the increase in marine gasoil demand resulting from the regulations were in OECD countries, about 540 kb/d, current middle distillate stocks would represent 29.3 days of forward cover, about 3.5 days below the average.
The oil market shows signs of tightening as we move into 2Q19, but we see mixed signals in terms of the outlook for demand and whether stock levels are yet “normal”.
Source: IEA
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Thursday, 06 February 20
CHINESE DEMAND KEY UNCERTAINTY FOR SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2020 - THE BRICS POST
Coal trader Noble Resources head of research Rodrigo Echeverri Cardozo had penciled in a 3 Mt drop in Chinese import demand for 2020, but it could ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - WATSON, FARLEY & WILLIAMS
The continued spread of Coronavirus and governmental measures to minimise the impact is likely to affect the shipping industry and supply chain.
...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
INDONESIA'S COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP 1.46% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The oil and gas industry benefitted from a strong and solid ground in the previous year. We witnessed a slow but steady increase in bunker’s ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
RUSSIA EXPORTED 28.6 MLN TONNES OF LNG IN 2019 - REFINITIV
A lot of attention has been paid recently on the surge in LNG exports from the United States. However, another country which is seeing truly expone ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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